Four losses already, nine Tests left: What Shubman Gill's India need to do to reach WTC final?

India's cricket team finds themselves in a challenging position as they approach the final stretch of the 2025-27 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle. With only nine Tests remaining and a current points percentage (PCT) of 48.15, the team must secure a minimum of six to seven victories out of the remaining matches to have a realistic chance at reaching the WTC final in June next year.

Speaking at a pre-match press conference ahead of the first Test against Sri Lanka, India captain Shubman Gill emphasized the importance of the upcoming series. Four of India's remaining nine matches will be played away from home, with the next two series set to take place in Sri Lanka and New Zealand. The WTC cycle concludes with a five-Test series against Australia at home early the following year.

To achieve a PCT of 60, which would have been sufficient in the previous two WTC cycles for qualification, India would need to accumulate a minimum of 78 points from their remaining matches. This means that India cannot afford to lose more than two Tests, as losing three would result in a maximum of 72 points and fall short of the desired PCT.

Potential routes to qualifying include a combination of wins and draws. Six wins and two draws would secure a PCT of 61.11, while seven wins would push India's PCT to 62.96, substantially improving their chances of reaching the final. Securing eight or nine wins would likely guarantee India's place in the WTC final.