Exclusive: Ukraine whispers to Trump that Russia may not capture Donbas even in 2027

Ukrainian officials have privately informed the Trump administration that Russia may struggle to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk Oblast even by 2027, according to a document obtained by the Kyiv Independent. The document, shared with the U.S. during peace process negotiations, highlights a significant slowdown in Russian territorial advances.

Currently, Russia controls less than 1% of Donetsk Oblast, with Ukraine maintaining control over 21% to 22% of the region. The document challenges Russia's argument that it will eventually capture the territory through military force, suggesting that the pace of gains has slowed to less than 100 square kilometers per month. This has led Ukraine to propose a ceasefire along existing front lines as a step toward peace, rather than surrendering territory that has proven difficult to capture.

The assessment also warns that Russia may attempt to compensate for its military difficulties by launching a major military mobilization, potentially mobilizing up to 500,000 additional personnel after September. Additionally, Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian military infrastructure, logistics hubs, and strategic targets, reducing Russia's refining capacity by over 30% and targeting hundreds of vessels in the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

However, Ukraine faces challenges in its defense, including a dwindling supply of Patriot interceptor missiles, which are crucial for countering Russian ballistic missiles.