CATL mine shutdown threatens to flip lithium market into deficit
Uncertainty over Contemporary Amperex Technology’s (CATL) Jianxiawo lithium mine is threatening to tighten global supply into 2027, even as speculation over its […]
The shutdown of Contemporary Amperex Technology’s (CATL) Jianxiawo lithium mine in China threatens to create a global supply deficit of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2027. The mine, which accounts for about 4% of global supply, was suspended in August 2025 after its mining license expired. CATL secured a safety production permit on June 29, clearing a regulatory hurdle towards restarting the mine, but operations have yet to resume.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates a prolonged shutdown could put around 60,000 tonnes of LCE supply at risk in China’s Jiangxi province. If the mine restarts later than initially expected, it could significantly reduce expected 2026 output from the operation. The delayed restart adds to other potential supply constraints, with Zimbabwe preparing to ban lithium concentrate exports from January 1, which could trap a notable portion of global concentrate supply.
The market has already seen sharp price swings as speculation over the restart fuels uncertainty. Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have dropped nearly 30% since May, and the exchange has had to cap new positions and raise trading fees due to price volatility. Despite the uncertainty, analysts forecast a global lithium surplus of about 78,000 tonnes LCE in 2026.
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