Can 'digital twins' help California manage its growing flood risk?

Approximately 1.4 million Californians reside in areas prone to flooding annually, a figure that is expected to rise due to climate change. However, comprehending flood risk remains challenging for residents and policymakers. While FEMA maps and knowledge of 100-year floodplains provide some insight, they fail to convey the likelihood of flooding and its potential impacts.

A UC Berkeley-led initiative aims to change this by developing digital twins of flood-prone regions to enhance understanding and management of flood risks.

Digital twins are dynamic, highly detailed virtual models of real-world entities that can be updated in real-time to reflect their physical counterparts' behavior. In this project, researchers are constructing a digital twin of the Central California farmworker communities of Watsonville and Pajaro. These communities, situated on either side of the Lower Pajaro River, have experienced five significant floods since the levee system's completion in 1949. Most recently, a devastating flood in March 2023 resulted in an estimated $300 million in damages.

The Berkeley team is collaborating with the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency and other stakeholders to build this digital twin, incorporating the new levee system. If successful, this approach could be replicated in other flood-prone regions of California. This will mark the first U.S. digital twin for flood risk management, utilizing the scenarify software developed by the Vienna Research Center for Visual Computing.

The digital twin offers a three-dimensional visualization of potential flooding and how processes evolve over time. For instance, setback levees, which move farther from river channels than conventional levees, are becoming increasingly popular as they mitigate flood risk while potentially offering ecological benefits like groundwater recharge and wetland habitat restoration. However, setback levees may also displace vulnerable residential communities.

By integrating flood risk, environmental considerations, and social equity into the simulation, digital twins can provide a comprehensive understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of various mitigation strategies. The project's success hinges on involving local communities and stakeholders to refine the software and better incorporate these diverse factors. As climate change intensifies destructive events, digital twinning and monitoring can help prolong infrastructure life while adapting to evolving conditions.