Börsenthema der Woche: Dax auf Rekordkurs – wie ist das möglich?

This week, the DAX stock index has hit a record high, with a remarkable 20% gain since its March low, nearly 100% increase over the past four years. In the last week alone, it reached its 15th all-time high. While some may expect a correction soon, especially considering August and September are usually weak months for the market, there are five strong arguments supporting the DAX's positive trajectory.

Firstly, the global economy is growing robustly at around 3% this year. As long as the US-led economic recovery continues, German stocks have good opportunities. After all, 80% of German companies' revenues come from outside the country. The United States is the most important single market, accounting for nearly 23% of their sales, which makes the domestically weak growth insignificant.

Secondly, the DAX benefits from its many export-oriented industrial companies, such as Siemens, Siemens Energy, Merck, Infineon, and DHL, which are profiting from the AI boom and the global investment cycle, particularly in data centers. This includes the production of microchip components and server transport, cooling systems, and much more.

Thirdly, the Russian military aggression in Ukraine plays almost no role on financial markets as long as the conflict remains limited. While a peace agreement is still far away, US President Donald Trump has been more involved in this war than his predecessor Joe Biden and the Europeans. Reading more: Dax Record - Why German Stocks Are Attracted As Investors Now

Fourthly, although the war in Iran has increased oil prices temporarily, there is enough oil worldwide to keep prices from remaining permanently high, as the US supports fossil fuels and raises production quotas, led by President Donald Trump.

Lastly, the record highs are backed by the strong profit growth of the DAX companies. Twelve companies have raised their annual forecasts in recent weeks, with analysts predicting on average that German companies will earn more than ever in 2026 and surpass their previous record-setting year of 2021. While BMW, Mercedes, and VW earned around 50 billion euros in 2021, this year's earnings are expected to be less than 20 billion euros.

However, these automakers play a minimal role on the stock market, as their share prices have fallen so drastically in the past decade that it no longer matters whether they continue to fall or not. Together, they are still worth 118 billion euros after reaching almost 300 billion euros at their peak in 2015. These automakers now account for only 5.5% of the entire DAX, compared to 23% just a decade ago.

Other stocks drive the DAX even more. Airbus, Allianz, Deutsche Telekom, SAP, and Siemens are individually more valuable and thus more important for the DAX than all three car manufacturers combined.