Argentina’s return to global debt markets is delayed again: what happened now?

In mid-July, Argentina's EMBI+ index fell to 402 basis points, its lowest point since April 2018. Lowering this index would reduce the cost of financing for the Argentine government and signify a psychological benchmark, as it is the lowest level in over eight years. However, by August 15, country risk rose to 469 points, a 16.6% increase from the low.

Argentina's country risk currently mirrors that of Ecuador and Bolivia, more than double that of Mexico and Colombia, nearly four times that of Brazil and Peru, slightly over six times that of Chile, and about six times that of Uruguay.

Fundación Mediterránea suggests Argentina possesses better fiscal indicators than much of the region, yet its country risk remains above 400 basis points. Analysts attribute this stagnation to structural issues, including Argentina's meager Central Bank reserves (6% of GDP as of December 2025, compared to the regional average of 16.3%).

Additionally, restrictions on international capital movements, known as the corporate "cepo," contribute to the elevated country risk. Argentina's history of debt defaults also carries a reputational cost, affecting its borrowing rate.

The risk of an economic policy shift at every presidential election in Argentina's recent history adds to the mix. This factor "surely" weighs on the current level of local country risk, especially with the upcoming 2027 election. Eric Ritondale, chief economist at Puente, noted that recent developments reflect a mix of external and local factors.

On the domestic front, he acknowledged a slight decoupling from Argentina's main comparable countries, which he attributed to market pricing in the electoral cycle earlier than usual. Globally, the high Federal Reserve interest rates have pressured fixed-income assets in emerging markets, contributing to the widening of local country risk.