Why does it feel like the US and Iran are stuck in an endless conflict loop?

The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran feels like an endless loop, with both sides frequently reverting to the same demands and threats. In recent days, Iran has once again demanded the Trump administration lift sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets, and remove its military blockade in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz.

This mirrors the agreement reached in a memorandum of understanding in June. However, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded Iran pay compensation for the lives lost in the past 50 years and claims "total control" over the strait. Iran, in turn, maintains the strait will remain closed until the US meets its conditions. This cycle of rhetoric and threats has been a recurring pattern since the war began on February 28.

The US has shown a pattern of reacting predictably when backed into a corner, threatening mass destruction of Iranian targets, then changing course and claiming progress towards a deal. The Iranian regime, meanwhile, has oscillated between engaging in direct negotiations and refusing to talk altogether. Both sides have also engaged in a cycle of military actions and retaliations, with at least 84 incidents involving harm to vessels in the strait from March 1 to August 10.

Despite the clear desire from both sides to end the war and break this pattern, neither option seems appealing. The US is unwilling to accept strategic defeat and relinquish control over the strait, while Iran is focused on regime survival and sees the conflict as existential. The new supreme leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, has filled key positions with hardliners, preparing for a prolonged war. This suggests that unless either side becomes politically or militarily exhausted, the conflict loop will continue to persist.