What Would a North Korean Surge Mean for Ukraine War?

North Korea is reportedly preparing to send up to 50,000 troops to Russia to aid Moscow in its war with Ukraine, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In late July, Zelenskyy mentioned Russia's interest in bringing in an additional 30,000 North Korean soldiers, with the final count ranging from 30,000 to 50,000. Zelenskyy also cautioned that North Korea is gaining valuable experience in modern warfare and urged South Korea to strengthen cooperation with Ukraine on air defense and drones.

Russia and North Korea signed a defense pact in summer 2024, with North Korean combat troops starting to arrive in Russia several months later. Analysts estimate that around 14,000 to 15,000 North Koreans were initially deployed, primarily in the Kursk region. North Korea has also sent more than 6,000 sappers and military construction workers to Russia, as well as millions of artillery rounds and ballistic missiles.

It is believed that approximately 6,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded in the conflict. South Korean intelligence sources suggest that the North Korean surge could begin by the end of November, with the troops potentially moving to Russia's Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions to free up Russian forces for the Ukrainian front.

South Korean lawmaker Yu Yong-won expressed concern over the growing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, noting that the additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops would significantly outnumber the initial deployment of around 20,000. Former South Korean intelligence official Han Ki-bum suggested that North Korea's manpower could allow for such a deployment without severely compromising their defenses.

North Korea benefits from the arrangement by gaining experience in modern warfare and testing weapons in actual battlefield conditions, while Russia gains access to North Korean expertise in missile, naval, and air-defense technology.