What do the numbers say about Sunderland's 2026-27 season?
Why - outside newly promoted teams Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich - are Sunderland once again among the bookmakers' favourites for the drop? While results and where you finish in the table are ultimately all that matter, Sunderland's underlying statistics from last season suggest repeating their success might not be so simple. While Aston Villa and Sunderland made a mockery of xG by finishing…
Sunderland finds itself among the bookmakers' favorites for relegation in the 2026-27 season, despite a strong start last year. This assertion is supported by underlying statistics, such as expected goals (xG), which indicate how well teams create good chances and limit opponents to few low-quality ones. Only relegated Burnley and Wolves had a lower xG difference than Sunderland in the previous season, while West Ham, with the fourth-worst overall xG, also faced relegation.
Aston Villa and Sunderland defied xG by finishing much higher in the table, making them exceptions to the general rule of overachieving teams. Only Manchester City and Aston Villa overperformed their xG numbers by more than Sunderland, who scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than expected based on the number and quality of their shots.
The 2026-27 season appears to be a potential outlier, as Sunderland's underlying numbers improved after returning from the Africa Cup of Nations, where they were without six players, twice as many as any other side. If the Black Cats can maintain this performance, relegation might be a distant possibility.
Written by urgent.news from Yahoo Sports's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
