Umno’s dream of supremacy will test BN-PN pact, say analysts

Umno's ambition to regain its dominant position among Malay parties may pose significant challenges to the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) pact as they prepare for the next general election (GE16). Analysts believe that Umno must contest a greater number of Malay-majority seats in order to achieve its objective. However, the political landscape has shifted since the 2022 general election (GE15), with the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) securing 43 parliamentary seats compared to Umno's 26.

Malay voters constitute at least 51% of the electorate in 166 seats across Peninsular Malaysia, with 86 of these seats having Malay voters comprising more than 65% of the total. This battleground between Umno and PAS could lead to potential deadlocks during seat negotiations, particularly in states where PAS dominates and Umno's influence has been diminished.

Mazlan Ali, a political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, highlighted that PAS may be unwilling to relinquish seats in Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis to Umno. Conversely, Umno would need to compete for more Malay seats to regain its previous dominance. The implications of such a shift could potentially result in a reconfiguration of the BN-PN alliance for the upcoming elections.

Further complicating the situation, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang has hinted that the "formula" for cooperation between BN and PN might evolve following the 2021 Melaka state election, where BN won 18 of the 25 contested Malay-majority seats while PN secured seven. Hadi's comments suggest that PAS may not be as accommodating as it was during the polls in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, where BN managed to win.

Despite these hurdles, A Aziz Azizam, an academic from Universiti Teknologi Mara, cautioned against relying solely on the results of the GE15 as a benchmark. Aziz emphasized the need for both coalitions to consider current voting patterns, credible candidates, local demographics, voter turnout, and the potential for multi-cornered contests when negotiating seat allocations.

He stressed that top-level agreements may not necessarily translate into the support of grassroots constituents, making it essential for BN and PN to take these additional factors into account during their deliberations.