UK GDP expected to show moderate Q2 growth
The United Kingdom’s (UK) Office for National Statistics will release the preliminary estimate of the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Market analysts anticipate a 0.4% growth in the three months to June, after a modest 0.6% advance in the first quarter of 2026.
The UK Office for National Statistics will release the preliminary Q2 GDP estimate on Thursday, with market analysts expecting a modest 0.4% growth in the three months to June. This follows a 0.6% advance in the first quarter of 2026, bringing the annual progress to 1.1%, up from 0.9% in March. The GDP figures will impact the British Pound (GBP), subject to revisions in the coming months.
Market participants anticipate a mild GDP outcome due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is driving consumer spending slowdown and weak real wage growth. The Bank of England (BoE) left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75%, but three out of nine members voted to increase it by 25 basis points. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers housing costs (CPIH), decreased to 2.8% in the 12 months to June, down from 3% the previous month.
However, global inflation is expected to rise again from July due to Middle East tensions. The Q2 GDP report is expected to show a moderate growth rate, and a reading within expectations is unlikely to significantly affect GBP/USD.
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