The Commodities Feed: Oil prices cool despite US-Iran deadlock
Energy – EU gas storage drops Oil prices edged lower through much of yesterday’s session; Brent crude ended the day largely flat. There was little in the way of fresh developments between the US and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock. Meanwhile, the latest large drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port appears to ...
Oil prices experienced a slight decline throughout the trading day on Friday, with Brent crude settling nearly flat. The lack of recent news between the United States and Iran, which has left both parties in stalemate, contributed to the muted price movement. Notably, a significant drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port did not result in any damage to oil infrastructure, as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report.
US crude oil inventories surged by 17.42 million barrels over the past week, marking the largest weekly increase since January 2023. The increase was primarily attributed to a rise in trade imports and a decrease in exports, with refined products seeing modest declines in stocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a global oil market deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026 due to disruptions in the Middle East.
Global oil supply has risen by 2.4 million barrels per day in July, but it remains 6.3 million barrels per day below the year-ago level, with full-year oil supply expected to fall by 4.3 million barrels in 2026. OPEC's latest monthly report indicated that the group expects global demand to rise by 580,000 barrels per day year-over-year, despite concerns over Persian Gulf disruptions and high fuel prices.
European gas prices have risen significantly, with TTF pushing above EUR 60/MWh, but investment funds have recently reduced their net long positions in TTF by 16.6 TWh. Grain prices in Europe have also surged following a drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port, which temporarily halted operations at three grain terminals. The USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report bolstered expectations for grain prices, with corn and soybean production estimates being revised upwards.
However, US corn ending stocks were cut by 137 million bushels to 1.653 billion bushels, falling short of market expectations. The USDA also reduced US wheat ending stocks from 722 million bushels to 717 million bushels, while global soybean ending stock estimates remained unchanged at 124.2 million metric tons.
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