The volatility of the Korean won has been increasing, reaching levels comparable to those of emerging markets, as the exchange rate has experienced significant fluctuations, rising sharply before falling. The 22nd, according to the Bank of Korea, the won-dollar exchange rate's daily fluctuation rate, which was at around 0.6% in April, has more than doubled to 1.3% as of the 19th. This rate surpasses that of major countries; for instance, it is 0.8% in Japan, 0.7% in the United States, 0.5% in Germany, and 0.6% in the United Kingdom. The Bank of Korea attributes this to the won's tendency to follow the movements of emerging market currencies. A Bank of Korea official stated, "The recent sharp decline in the value of the won against the dollar, following its significant rise, indicates that the won is moving similarly to emerging market currencies." The won-dollar exchange rate dropped to 1,390.2 won on the 19th, a 9.3 won decrease from the previous day, and it continued to fluctuate on the 20th as well. The exchange rate, which had started at 1,382.5 won on the 19th, rose to 1,396.1 won at one point during the day, showing a fluctuation of up to 13.6 won. The intraday fluctuation rate, which had been 0.8% on the 18th, reached 1% on the 19th. The won-dollar exchange rate has seen a significant increase of 14.4 won over the past month, the largest among the G20 countries. In the past month, the won has ranked first in terms of decline among the G20 countries. The Bank of Korea plans to closely monitor the foreign exchange market and intervene if necessary to prevent excessive volatility. An official from the Ministry of Economy and Finance stated, "We will continue to take firm action against excessive speculation and market volatility."
Over the course of July, South Korea's won experienced a notable decline in the exchange rate against the US dollar, marking the highest level of volatility among major currencies. According to data released by the Bank of Korea on July 13, the daily fluctuation rate for the won-to-dollar exchange rate reached 0.53%, with a range of 8.0 won, surpassing the previous fluctuations in May (0.45%, 6.6 won) and June (0.50%, 7.6 won).
The exchange rate itself climbed from 1507.9 won at the end of May to 1549.4 won at the end of June, before dropping sharply to 1424.0 won by the end of July. When compared internationally, the won's fluctuation rate was the highest among major currencies, except for Russia. The daily fluctuation rates for the US dollar, euro, Australian dollar, British pound, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, and Norwegian krone stood at 0.21%, 0.22%, 0.29%, 0.30%, 0.37%, 0.38%, and 0.44% respectively.
Among emerging economies, only China and Indonesia showed lower rates, with 0.10% and 0.23% respectively, while India and Brazil had rates of 0.24% and 0.45% respectively, while Russia's rate was 0.55%. This high level of volatility can be attributed to South Korea's heavy reliance on trade and the openness of its capital markets, making it particularly susceptible to external financial conditions.
Foreign investment in domestic stocks amounted to $216.5 billion in July, with $207 billion in equity and $9.6 billion in bonds. The net outflow of $216.5 billion in equities, compared to $307.2 billion outflow in June (with $323.7 billion from equities and $16.5 billion in bonds), indicates a reduction in outflows. The outflow pattern from equities has persisted since January of this year, while the inflow from bonds was reversed in July after beginning in April as part of the inclusion of South Korean government bonds in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI).
The Bank of Korea attributed the shift to equities outflows to tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over global artificial intelligence (AI) investments, while the decrease in bond inflows was attributed to lower interest rates on South Korean government bonds due to the decline in US bond yields. The Bank of Korea assessed that South Korea's foreign exchange inflow conditions remain favorable, with the one-year and medium-term foreign exchange borrowing rates for the eight major banks falling from 25bp to 17bp and 37bp to 41bp respectively. The Credit Default Swaps (CDS) premium remained stable at 23bp for both July.
Written by urgent.news from Hankyoreh's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.