Russia’s Diesel Exports Crash to Multiyear-Low amid Tight Global Market

Russia's diesel and gasoil exports plummeted to a multi-year low of 80,000 barrels per day in the first week of August, as the country extended restrictions on diesel shipments due to a fuel crisis caused by continuous Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. This sharp decline in diesel exports exacerbates the already tight global market for middle distillates, which is now tighter than the crude supply.

Last year, Russia exported up to 1 million bpd of diesel and gasoil, whereas this year, the ongoing drone campaign by Ukraine targeting Russian oil refining infrastructure and supply routes has caused significant disruptions.

The diesel and gasoil shortage in Russia has persisted for over three months, exacerbated by the Ukrainian drone campaign that forced many large processing sites offline in the spring and summer. The combination of reduced Russian fuel supply and the lack of fuel reaching the Persian Gulf has further tightened refined petroleum markets more than the crude market.

Despite a rise in global refinery crude throughputs in July, they remain nearly 5 million bpd below year-ago levels, at 80.9 million bpd, according to the International Energy Agency's monthly Oil Market Report.

The tighter light and middle distillate markets have driven up cracks and margins in the Atlantic Basin to record highs. While U.S. fuel exports increased by approximately 700,000 bpd in July compared to the previous year, global seaborne trade in petroleum products dropped by 3.8 million bpd due to the sharp decline in Russian and Middle Eastern diesel and jet fuel exports. The IEA anticipates a drop in global seaborne trade by 2.5 million bpd on average in 2026, with a rebound of 3.5 million bpd in 2027.