Oil Prices Fall Over $1 As Demand Forecasts Cut Even As US-Iran Deadlock Keeps Supply Risks Elevated

Oil prices plummeted by over $1 per barrel on Thursday, following analysts' downgrade of their global demand forecast for 2026. The revision was attributed to geopolitical disruptions stemming from the US-Israel conflict with Iran. However, a sharper decrease in prices was curbed due to apprehensions of supply interruptions from the Middle East. Brent crude futures slid $1.29, or 1.5%, to $87.69 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude tumbled $1.30, or 1.6%, to $81.97 a barrel.

Despite the price drop, market participants remained vigilant about the situation at the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for international oil transport. There were scant indications of advancement in attempts to re-open the waterway, as U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that the United States held "total control" over the strategic passage.

Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, with both nations steadfast in their stances. Washington maintains restrictions on Iranian ports as part of its strategy to exert pressure on Tehran.

Pakistan, which has been engaged in diplomatic efforts, reported that broader discussions have slowed. Though talks surrounding extending the deadline for a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding are still viable. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cautioned that the global oil market might witness a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day during the current quarter, as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists. The agency projected the shortfall to be more than twice the previous estimate.

For 2026, the IEA anticipates the market to face its most substantial supply deficit in five years. An Iranian official stated that discussions to revive an interim agreement signed in June have made little headway, with neither party agreeing on a timeline for implementation.