Oil output, reforms sustain Nigeria’s economic growth – OPEC

Nigeria's economic growth remains robust, according to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the first quarter of 2026, the country's economy expanded by 3.9% year-on-year, only slightly below the 4.0% growth recorded in the previous quarter of 2025. OPEC attributes this strong performance to a combination of factors, including improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production, and continued reforms.

The non-oil economy, driven by agriculture, manufacturing, construction, trade, finance, and insurance, has been the main support for growth in Nigeria. Higher oil output has also improved fiscal revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and external buffers. Survey indicators suggest that private-sector activity is recovering, with firms reporting a marked increase in new orders due to improved customer demand, better pricing, and new product launches. Output and employment have also risen modestly, indicating continued expansion.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is a major source of locally refined petroleum products. This increased domestic refining capacity should further support energy availability and reduce some of the pressures associated with petroleum imports. Inflation pressures have begun to soften, with headline inflation standing at 15.9% year-on-year in both June and May.

Although higher fuel and raw material costs remain a challenge, the moderation in input costs is an indication that some cost pressures are easing.

Looking ahead, Nigeria's near-term outlook remains positive, supported by oil production, reform progress, infrastructure investment, and stronger business activity. The combination of improved macroeconomic stability, steady oil production, and continued reforms is expected to further strengthen the country's economic outlook.