Norwegian Krone: Dovish risks but bullish view against Euro – ING
Francesco Pesole at ING sees some downside risks for the Norwegian Krone from Norges Bank’s meeting, as benign CPI‑ATE prints could tilt communication slightly less hawkish. He still expects rates to stay at 4.25% today and another hike later this year, but is less convinced about multiple moves.
ING's Francesco Pesole sees some potential downside risks from the Norwegian Krone's future due to Norges Bank's recent meeting. While they expect rates to remain at 4.25% for now, Pesole acknowledges a possibility of another hike later in the year, though he is less convinced. Despite limited upside for front-end NOK rates, ING maintains a bullish stance on the currency, with a target of 10.75 EUR/NOK by year-end.
The two recently recorded benign 2.7% CPI-ATE prints may have shifted the tone of Norges Bank's future communication to be slightly less hawkish. However, the upside potential for the NOK at present seems minimal. Markets are currently pricing in around 27 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, which aligns with ING's base case.
The analyst remains confident in the long-term fundamentals and the attractive carry of the Norwegian Krone, but he doesn't anticipate any major concerns arising from another rate hike.
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