Mexico Has More Refining Capacity. So Why Are Fuel Imports Rising?

Mexico's expansion of refining capacity has outpaced its ability to maintain stable operations, leading to rising fuel imports despite efforts to reduce reliance on foreign oil. While the government has invested heavily in improving refining efficiency, the refineries have struggled to process crude at consistently high rates. In Q2 2026, Mexican refineries processed only about 1 million barrels per day, well below their 1.75 million barrel capacity.

Despite this, fuel imports surged again, with diesel and gasoline imports averaging $54/bbl and $44/bbl, respectively. The improvements seen at refineries like Tula have been offset by technical failures and frequent disruptions at other facilities, such as Dos Bocas and Salina Cruz. This highlights the central weakness in Mexico's self-sufficiency strategy: while the country can reduce imports when refineries run harder, it has yet to prove that they can sustain high utilization rates consistently.

The financial burden of Mexico's refineries is significant, with $77.5 billion in debt and another $14.6 billion in restructured supplier debt. The combination of low utilization rates and high fuel import costs makes the economics of Mexico's refining strategy less attractive, despite the potential profitability of strong crack spreads.