Maersk shares jump 8% after shipping giant smashes profit estimates and hikes outlook

On August 13, Danish shipping conglomerate Maersk surpassed profit estimates and upgraded its 2026 earnings forecast for the second time in a year, driven by the Middle East conflict and robust demand. For the first quarter of 2026, Maersk reported EBITDA of US$3 billion, surpassing the median forecast of US$2.12 billion from 11 analysts. This figure is a stark contrast to the US$2.3 billion recorded in the previous year.

The shipping behemoth, which holds the second position in global container shipping, announced its revised outlook in June, citing strong demand, particularly in Asia, and forecasting a 4% annual growth in the global container market for 2026. In response to this positive outlook, Maersk now anticipates underlying EBITDA between US$10.5 billion and US$12.5 billion, an increase from the earlier estimate of US$8 billion to US$10 billion.

Similarly, underlying operating profit is now projected between US$4.5 billion and US$6.5 billion, compared to the previous range of US$2 billion to US$4 billion.

Maersk's recent surge in profits can be attributed to the rise in freight rates, attributed to various factors including the US-Iran war, which disrupted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. However, some industry experts have expressed caution, suggesting that the current strength in the freight market may be a short-term advantage masking underlying risks. They also warn that a normalization of Red Sea traffic could significantly impact freight rates.

The Asia-Europe trade route, which previously utilized the Suez Canal, has seen a decline in shipping activity since the start of the decade due to attacks by Yemen's Houthis. This shift to longer routes around Africa resulted in increased shipping rates, making freight more expensive. However, recently, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced plans to resume some services through the Suez Canal as part of a gradual reopening.