Is multipolarity helping or hindering Iran?

Is multipolarity helping or hindering Iran? In recent decades, the global shift towards multipolarity has sparked debate over its impact on the Iran conflict. This period of multipolarity has allowed both Israel and the United States to adopt a more confrontational stance towards Iran compared to past decades. However, this same multipolar shift initially benefited Iran in the 2000s and 2010s, as the world order's move to multipolarity prompted greater caution from the United States.

Despite this initial advantage, Iran now finds itself on the receiving end of the same multipolar changes. The Middle East has historically been a region characterized by multipolarity, with medium-sized states possessing significant assets but none capable of dominating the area as the US dominates North America or China does in East Asia.

This historical multipolar balance of power in the Middle East attracted superpower interest and was partially contained by the global balance of power. For instance, during the Cold War, both sides supported Israel and its neighbors, eventually playing a role in de-escalating tensions. Similarly, during the post-Cold War unipolar era dominated by the US, the US projected its power into the region and became the established hegemon.

Iran's Islamic Revolution emerged in this constrained international environment, although Tehran's regional ambitions were contained by superpower support for Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. After the war, the unipolar era enabled the US to establish a larger regional presence, imposing "Dual Containment" to restrain Iran alongside Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

The 2000s witnessed a shift both globally and regionally, as the US's war fatigue, 2008 Financial Crash, and the rise of China as a potential challenger to US global dominance led to a gradual shift towards multipolarity. By the end of the decade, following Barack Obama's election, the world saw a return to multipolarity, with the US losing its desire to act as the hegemon in the Middle East.

With external constraints lifted for the first time in decades, the Middle East's longstanding multipolarity re-emerged, and Iran seized the opportunity. Iran capitalized on the changing regional and global circumstances more swiftly than its rivals, gaining a "first mover advantage." While the US's allies—Gulf States, Israel, and Türkiye—still sought US intervention against Iran and its allies, they grew frustrated when Obama was reluctant to act.

Thus, multipolarity has both facilitated Iran's rise as a regional power and contributed to weakening it, potentially preventing its complete defeat. Donald Trump, who has lost the Iran war, remains uncertain about the extent of his failure.