Gold: Upside capped by Fed hike risks – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Bart Melek points out that gold has been on the rise after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, which has reinforced a bearish outlook for the Federal Reserve. With prices hovering around $4,434 per ounce and resistance just below $4,500 per ounce, Melek anticipates gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range.

However, he maintains that it's too soon to predict a breakthrough towards $5,000 per ounce. With momentum behind the price surge to $4,434, and short-term triggers for CTA traders near $4,468, the yellow metal may soon confront resistance just under $4,500. A clear surge above this level would likely hinge on solid confirmation that the Fed will not hike rates in the current year.

Consequently, gold is likely to remain near the upper segment of its current trading range, which has witnessed a significant upward shift since July, yet a breakout to $5,000 remains premature. Until then, any potential movement in the gold market should be expected to stay within the upper bound of the recent higher trading range. If inflationary pressures don't emerge soon, gold could experience a surge towards the 5-handle.