Ending war, normalising relations with West not part of Russia's long-term plans – KSF

A comprehensive analysis spanning nearly two decades reveals that Russia's government decisions in budgetary, tariff, monetary, and foreign economic policies form a cohesive plan, not temporary measures, to advance a long-term strategy of confrontation with Western nations, according to a report on the Kyiv Security Forum website.

Defense spending in Russia has consistently increased since the early 2010s, despite fluctuating oil prices, indicating a deliberate allocation of resources to the military-industrial complex rather than adjusting to budgetary conditions. The Russian government has attempted to limit tariff increases below inflation since 2017 but abandoned this approach in 2022, with tariffs now projected to surpass inflation rates in the medium term.

This policy shift reflects a strategic decision to funnel resources towards infrastructure monopolies and military purposes. Russia's accumulation of international reserves and reduction of external debt over the past two decades, initiated prior to the 2008 financial crisis, underscores a long-term strategy aimed at bolstering economic resilience against external shocks.

This fiscal discipline, coupled with the steady rise in defense spending, suggests a calculated decision to prioritize military capabilities and systemic confrontation with the West over economic diversification. The report suggests that Russia's strategy involves consolidating its position as a raw materials exporter, reorienting energy flows toward Asia, and leveraging tariffs and budgetary measures to fund military expenditures without resorting to debt financing.

This long-term, meticulous planning aims to solidify Russia's economic and political influence on the global stage, positioning the nation as a key player in the geopolitical landscape.