Commentary: A reality check is needed on Arctic shipping

A reality check is needed on the emerging Arctic shipping industry, according to Richard Milne of the Financial Times. While there is significant potential for gas, oil, hydropower, and geothermal energy in the region, the pace of change is slow. For example, United States President Donald Trump's interest in Greenland has not yet led to substantial resource development.

The latest potential breakthrough is the launch of Sea Legend, a Chinese container shipping company, which will operate a regular service through the Northern Sea Route from China to the UK. This route can cut journey times from Asia to Europe by half, but it remains a niche commercial activity. Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, suggests that it will take decades for this route to become a viable business proposition on a large scale.

The Northern Sea Route has not met Russia's expectations, partly due to sanctions against Russia following Ukraine's invasion, limiting foreign ships to transporting its own petroleum and minerals. While China, concerned about potential chokepoints controlled by the US or its allies, may see opportunities in the Arctic, the route is not without challenges.

It only operates for three months in the summer, and there are concerns about its cost-effectiveness due to icebreaker expenses. The route also faces geopolitical and environmental hurdles, with sanctions and the risk of accidents in the Arctic. Despite these obstacles, the Arctic's rapid warming and the actions of major powers indicate that even slow changes can lead to significant shifts in the future.