Coal mine plans grow even as new capacity plunges
Planned coal mine capacity rose 11% last year even as commissioning fell nearly 40%, highlighting a widening industry divide, a new report shows.
Proposed coal mining capacity expanded by 11% in the past year, driven primarily by India, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM). India's pipeline of potential mines doubled over the course of the year as the nation aims to meet rising electricity demand during heatwaves, support economic growth, and enhance energy security. GEM's Global Coal Mine Tracker reported that India's planned capacity production is projected to reach 1.15 billion tonnes by 2025-26.
However, the commissioning of new coal mining capacity fell nearly 40% over the same period, continuing a decline from prior years. This trend is attributed to the rise of low-cost clean energy sources, which are steadily displacing coal. Tiffany Means, a senior researcher at GEM and co-author of the report, stated that the economic logic for expanding coal mining becomes increasingly weaker as clean energy continues to erode coal's share of global electricity generation.
While the International Energy Agency projects a decline in coal demand by 2030, several countries persist in supporting large pipelines of potential mines. This creates the risk that projects approved today may enter production in a weaker long-term market. India's substantial expansion contrasts with China and Australia, where much of the decline in newly commissioned capacity was driven.
China's capacity additions decreased by 44% as the country increased wind and solar generation and implemented safety measures and stricter approval processes for expansions. Australia witnessed an even steeper 96% decline in capacity additions due to weaker demand from its major export markets.
Despite the weakening demand and reduced capacity entering production, GEM noted that many countries still maintain substantial development of coal mining pipelines. Approximately 70% of proposed projects remain in pre-permit or construction stages, presenting opportunities for governments and investors to prevent further capacity expansion.
Dorothy Mei, project manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker, emphasized that advancing more coal mining capacity in the current market climate risks creating long-lived assets that could become increasingly uneconomic over time.
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