America really might restore democracy to Venezuela

President Donald Trump's decision to deploy American special forces to capture Venezuela's dictator, Nicolás Maduro, in January did not initially appear to prioritize restoring democracy. Instead, Trump focused on controlling Venezuela's oil reserves and installed interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Many feared that without a strong American commitment to democracy, the country's repressive regime would continue.

However, the future of democracy in Venezuela appears to be improving, not due to Trump's newfound interest, but because of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's efforts. Rubio, who genuinely cares about ending left-wing dictatorships in Latin America, has been given considerable flexibility to utilize America's influence in this endeavor.

Negotiations between Venezuela's regime and opposition figures concluded on August 12th with a modest agreement to begin judicial reform, including the Supreme Court. The initial reports suggest optimism, with further talks potentially leading to reforms that could facilitate fair elections by December.

This progress is largely attributed to the pressure exerted by the United States. Rubio has been actively involved, speaking directly with the opposition's negotiator, Dinorah Figuera, who travels with American security and stays in American accommodations. The Venezuelan people, weary of Maduro's rule, desire a democratic transition, which would also benefit Trump by allowing Venezuela's oil industry to thrive under stable democratic governance.

However, challenges persist. The ruling clique has frequently broken promises to hold fair elections. While most Venezuelans oppose the current regime, some are wary of American intervention, potentially accusing Rubio's opposition of being an American puppet. Additionally, Venezuelans, having faced hardships due to oil revenues controlled by the United States, may not yet see tangible benefits from the country's resources.

To ensure successful negotiations, the election must be held by 2027, providing ample time for a stable democratic government to take power. The United States should disclose the amount of oil money collected, its return to Venezuela, and the sanctions hindering disbursement. Moreover, the elected government should immediately assume control over the oil revenues from day one.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado must also be allowed to return to Venezuela swiftly. While Rubio may prefer to distance her from the talks to facilitate negotiations with the regime, keeping her in exile is counterproductive. The regime will need assurance that any agreement also binds Machado, even if she acts through proxies.

Her presence would provide credibility to the potential deal, preventing her from reneging on terms such as safe exile for regime figures. Additionally, Machado's return could quell concerns about Trump's erratic behavior and his occasional desire to annex Venezuela, including claims that its oil belongs to the United States. For now, Rubio is pursuing noble objectives, but should Trump's stance change, Machado's ability to rally Venezuelans would be crucial in safeguarding their democracy.