WTI advances above $82.50 due to mixed signals regarding potential US-Iran deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices have risen consistently for three days, reaching around $82.70 per barrel on Wednesday in the Asian trading hours. The price increase is due to investors' consideration of mixed signals about a potential deal between the United States and Iran. Initial optimism rose after Pakistan's defence minister reported that the US and Iran are "close to some sort of arrangement" to secure the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Further diplomatic progress seemed possible as reports suggested parallel talks between Iran and Oman were also at an advanced stage. However, this market optimism was dampened by the White House's tougher stance. US President Donald Trump issued a stronger statement, demanding that Iran pay reparations for victims of attacks linked to the Islamic Republic.

These remarks came in response to Iran's weekend list of demands, which included war compensation following US and Israeli military actions in the region. Commerzbank analysts suggest that the hopes for a near-term agreement between Iran and the US and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are fading. The hardening of positions, according to them, is strengthening the geopolitical risk premium in the energy sector, supporting the rise of Brent toward USD 90 and gas oil toward nearly USD 1,350 per ton, and tightening the outlook for European diesel markets.

Disturbing geopolitical uncertainty was further compounded by US inventory data, showing a surprising 9.1 million barrels increase in crude oil stocks, much higher than the expected decline of 0.5 million barrels. This sharp inventory surge, the largest since February, contrasts with the market's prediction and adds to the overall bearish outlook for WTI Oil.