Why clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are ominous

The recent clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region are a worrying development, revealing the lingering tensions from a bitter war that ended just a few years ago. The conflict, which has now spilled over into neighboring Sudan and involved Eritrean and Sudanese forces, is the result of unresolved grievances dating back to the 2020-22 war.

Under a 2022 peace agreement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) agreed to disarm and accept an interim administration, while the federal government promised to restore services, allow displaced people to return home, and settle territorial disputes. However, many of these promises have not been fulfilled. Western Tigray was seized by Fano and allied forces during the war, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians who have yet to return.

Now, the TPLF demands the restoration of pre-war borders, rejecting the interim council set up during the conflict and claiming regional presidency. This has marginalized the federal interim administration, with Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, now governed by rival authorities. The TPLF’s exclusion from June’s elections further fueled political grievances.

The latest clashes in western Tigray, near the Sudanese border, are the most serious since the war ended. Both sides quickly blamed each other, and heavy artillery, drones, and accusations of violating the 2022 agreement have been reported. Tensions have been rising for months, driven by renewed recruitment and rhetoric from both sides. While neither appears keen on another full-scale war, they are intent on asserting their power.

The risk of escalation remains high. If either side pushes too far or attempts to regain control of Mekelle and key infrastructure, the conflict could spread, drawing in additional forces. Eritrea’s military presence already adds another layer of complexity.

For Egypt, Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access, including the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, is a significant concern. Egypt fears this could further destabilize maritime trade in the region. The recent recognition of Somaliland by Israel adds to Egypt’s unease, as the Tigray conflict may have broader implications for regional stability and security.