'Weak, Disorganised Nation' Pakistan May 1st Use Nuclear Weapons: Geopolitical Analyst Professor Jiang Xueqin's Shocking Guess; Worrying Signs For India?

Mumbai: Renowned geopolitical analyst Professor Jiang Xueqin has stirred debate by suggesting that if any nation were to employ nuclear weapons first in a future conflict, Pakistan would be the most likely perpetrator. His remarks, while emphasizing the low probability of such an event occurring in our lifetimes, have raised concerns for India, considering our shared border and strained relations with Pakistan.

Speaking on entrepreneur and YouTuber Raj Shamani's podcast, Jiang explained that he believes the chances of nuclear weapons being used are "almost zero," citing a global taboo against nuclear warfare. However, when pressed about which country might be most likely to use nuclear weapons first if such a scenario occurred, Jiang pointed to Pakistan, while briefly mentioning India as part of a potential conflict scenario between the two nations.

Describing Pakistan as a "weak, disorganized nation with nuclear weapons," Jiang argued that its political and institutional vulnerabilities make it a higher-risk nuclear power. He cited challenges such as political divisions, economic difficulties, and corruption as factors that could potentially lead to a nuclear-use scenario in a conflict between India and Pakistan.

In contrast to Pakistan, Jiang noted India's long-standing nuclear doctrine of "No First Use," which pledges not to initiate a nuclear strike. He emphasized that India's superior conventional military capabilities and the threat of severe international consequences make the use of nuclear weapons highly improbable. Despite his concerns, Jiang repeatedly stressed that the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used remains extremely low.