Vučić Welcomes Zelensky in Serbia: Turning Point or Tactical Gambit?

On Saturday, Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on his first official visit to Serbia, a nation historically regarded as one of Russia's most loyal European allies. According to some in the West, this event may signify that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is transitioning towards Europe, distancing himself from Moscow. Vučić has long employed a strategy of playing East and West against each other.

Currently grappling with substantial protests throughout his decade-long rule, he seeks the appearance of European legitimacy to strengthen his grip on power. For Vučić, hosting Zelensky is a tactical move rather than an indication that Belgrade has fundamentally altered its geopolitical approach. Although Serbia is a potential EU member, Vučić's political camp has portrayed the conflict in a Russia-friendly manner since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Kremlin-aligned media have propagated untruths about Ukraine attacking Russia, spread misinformation about potential Ukrainian biological weapons, and instilled fear that Western assistance to Kyiv could trigger World War III. At the same time, Vučić has transformed the war into a profitable venture. Serbian ammunition has reached Kyiv via third countries, leading former US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill to describe the arms trade as indicative of a "lasting and sustainable relationship" between Serbia and Ukraine.

However, Serbia's arms trade has consistently been driven by who is willing to pay, encompassing Western partners, Azerbaijan, the Gulf states, and African nations. Furthermore, Serbia has procured weapons from Russia and China. In 2023, Serbia carried out its inaugural combined exercise with China and procured Chinese drones and air defense systems.

Despite suspending military exercises with Russia following the invasion, Belgrade's intelligence ties with Russia's SVR have persisted. Serbian intelligence maintained contact with Russia's foreign intelligence agency, and during the March 2025 protests, former intelligence chief Vulin claimed Russian intelligence aided Serbian authorities in quelling what Belgrade termed a potential "color revolution."

Leaked documents revealed that Serbian intelligence and SVR jointly tested anti-protest sound cannons on dogs, following reports of mysterious sonic blasts during demonstrations in Belgrade. Russian intelligence has utilized Serbia as a permissive base for operations across Europe, ranging from training paramilitaries to destabilize Moldova and recruiting agents for provocations in France.

The Serbian Orthodox Church also stands as one of Moscow's principal channels of soft power in the Balkans. Serbian Patriarch Porfirije thanked Vladimir Putin for Russia's support on Kosovo, while Vučić bestowed Russia's highest state honor upon Russia's Patriarch Kirill in 2025. Energy is another domain where Serbia maintains a delicate equilibrium between East and West.

Despite Vučić's assurances to Western partners of Serbia's diversification, the nation remains heavily reliant on Russian gas even as he pitches a US-Serbia energy partnership centered on the Đerdap 3 hydropower project. After the United States sanctioned Serbia's Russian-owned oil company, NIS, Vučić has sought to buy time by securing sanctions waivers and attempting to restructure the company's Russian ownership.

The issue of Kosovo further illustrates Serbia's dual allegiance to East and West. Russia opposes Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence, and Belgrade relies on Moscow to veto full international recognition of Kosovar sovereignty. While Vučić vows never to recognize Russian control over Ukrainian territories, he does so primarily to safeguard Serbia's claim to Kosovo.

Brussels and Washington aim for Serbia to become more closely aligned with Europe and less dependent on Moscow. Conversely, the Kremlin seeks Serbia as a strategic foothold in the Balkans. Vučić seeks to keep both parties engaged and undemanding, ensuring neither side exerts excessive pressure. This strategy has become particularly relevant now, as Serbia's opposition protests represent his most significant political challenge in recent years.

A notable visit from Zelensky allows Vučić to demonstrate relevance to Western governments at a critical juncture when his domestic legitimacy is under threat. However, this visit incurs minimal costs for Vučić, as he does not need to impose sanctions on Russia, abandon Russian energy, or sever intelligence ties. The US has tolerated Belgrade's antics due to its apprehension that an overly stringent stance could prompt Serbia to align with Moscow.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Marko Djuric convened the inaugural US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue in July, pledging to deepen relations while Vučić continues to navigate between the two spheres. This approach necessitates change. Washington should contemplate imposing Global Magnitsky sanctions on Serbian officials implicated in repression, corruption, and collaboration with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.

Zelensky's visit should be judged not by the handshake in Belgrade, but by the actions that follow. If Vučić desires the legitimacy and advantages of the West, he must be held accountable for making genuine choices rather than merely offering promises. Until then, Washington and Brussels should refrain from interpreting his strategic maneuvering as a genuine shift toward the West.