Tropical Storm Cristobal Threat Grows: Spaghetti Models Show Potential Path

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring multiple disturbances across the Atlantic, with one system showing a high likelihood of developing into a tropical storm. The primary concern is a tropical wave located approximately 900 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system could potentially become a tropical depression within the next two days, and if it reaches tropical storm intensity, it would be named Cristobal, marking the third named storm of a season NOAA anticipates to be less active than average.

The NHC has given a 70% chance of cyclone formation over the next week, which has since increased to 80%. The agency also assigned an 80% formation chance within the next 48 hours. Environmental conditions are favorable for development over the next couple of days, with the system expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.

If the high-risk area were to develop, it would most likely intensify into either a tropical depression or a low-end tropical storm, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Nick Arman. The NHC has also identified two additional areas of concern: a low-pressure system around 1,050 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is currently generating gale-force winds and may briefly intensify into a tropical storm as it moves east-northeast across the Atlantic.

It is anticipated to encounter cooler waters by Thursday, which should halt any further development. Furthermore, a tropical wave just off the coast of West Africa is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. While conditions may allow the system to develop as it moves westward across the Atlantic in the coming days, its chances of formation remain relatively low at this time.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be relatively subdued, with the NOAA predicting seven to 13 named storms. Of these, two to six could evolve into hurricanes, and up to two could become major hurricanes. The likelihood of a below-normal season stands at 75%, with a 20% probability of a near-normal season and only a 5% chance of above-normal activity.

The subdued outlook is primarily attributed to El Niño, which developed in the Pacific in June. El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, making it more challenging for tropical systems to form or strengthen. Other contributing factors include near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a neutral west African monsoon.