Saudi Red Sea oil exports go dark as Houthi attack threat grows

Saudi crude exports from the Red Sea are vanishing from view due to growing threats from Yemen's Houthis. In response to the Houthis declaring a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia on July 20, tankers have begun operating without publicly visible tracking data, known as dark voyages, to avoid potential attacks. This has made it difficult to assess the extent to which the Houthi threats may be disrupting oil flows.

Shipping firms have provided varying estimates of Saudi oil exports via the Red Sea, with discrepancies between data from Vortexa, Kpler, and AXSMarine. Analysts report that recent loadings at Yanbu, a major Saudi port, have been conducted dark, with only 2.38 million barrels per day loaded by the week beginning August 3, according to Vortexa.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, through which most shipping traffic passes, has also been affected by Houthi attacks, with an average of 32 vessels transiting the waterway daily, down from about 50 a day before the blockade. Saudi Arabia has been sending more oil north through the Red Sea, either via the Suez Canal or Egypt's SUMED pipeline, with crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir averaging a record 2.17 million barrels per day last week.

War risk insurance costs have risen, and tanker companies are altering their sailing strategies, with many now directing vessels north and northwest.