Russians blame their own authorities more than Ukraine for gasoline shortages

As the Russian fuel crisis worsens, more Russians are pointing fingers at their own government, oil companies, and resellers rather than blaming Ukraine, according to Andrii Sukharyna, a Russia analyst at NGO Join Ukraine. Sukharyna's analysis, based on data from the Financial Times, shows that Ukrainian drones have struck Russian oil refineries nearly 200 times this year, compared to 11 times the previous year.

These attacks have led to gasoline sales restrictions, coupon systems, and long lines at gas stations across Russia.

In June and July, Sukharyna examined around 24,000 posts on the fuel crisis and more than 130,000 comments in 950 regional online communities. Ukraine was mentioned in just about 1% of these comments, making it a less frequent target than Russian authorities, gas stations, oil companies, and resellers.

As the crisis deepened, mentions of Ukraine declined even further, with the issue shifting from a wartime problem to a daily domestic one, alongside rising prices and housing and utility troubles. Russian people rarely speak directly about the war itself, with the words "war" or "special military operation" appearing only 1% to 1.5% of the time in comments. Calls to end the war are scarce.

Sukharyna believes the crisis has not yet sparked a mass anti-war sentiment, but it is eroding passive support for the war, particularly the perception that the war is distant and under state control. One Novosibirsk user summed it up, questioning if the war will end only when the last drop of gasoline is consumed. The question mark at the end of the statement may be the most telling.