Q&A: Why is the Amish population growing so fast in America?

The Amish, a Christian denomination with German roots, are experiencing rapid population growth in the United States. This trend, which began in Pennsylvania over three centuries ago and expanded into the Midwest, has seen the Amish population increase from a few thousand in 1910 to around 250,000 today. This demographic shift could have significant implications for rural communities, including economic development, land use, health services, and public infrastructure, according to Cory Anderson, a researcher at Penn State's Population Research Institute.

Anderson's recent study, published in Population Studies, analyzed data from over 263,000 Amish individuals from approximately 50,000 households, representing roughly 90% of the Amish population. He is particularly interested in understanding why the Amish maintain large family sizes despite numerous social, economic, and spatial factors that typically encourage smaller families.

The key to this high population growth seems to be the very high total fertility rate, with the typical Amish woman having an average of 6.1 children, compared to the national average of 1.5 children. This is even higher among married Amish women, who average 7.2 children by age 50.

Another factor contributing to the Amish population growth is their relatively long life expectancy of 81.2 years, which is slightly longer than the average American life expectancy. This, combined with a low out-migration rate of around 15%, means that many Amish people choose to remain within the community. Even those who leave tend to stay nearby, maintaining close ties to the Amish population.

The Amish also marry relatively young, around age 21, which accelerates the turnover of generations. For instance, while an American woman's first child is just starting school, the Amish woman's firstborn is likely nearing adulthood. This rapid generational turnover differs significantly from the American population, where the average woman gives birth to fewer children and enters motherhood later in life.

The Amish population's rapid growth and young age distribution could significantly impact rural communities, potentially leading to changes in economic activity, neighborhood dynamics, and political landscapes. The Amish's unique lifestyle, including their dress norms and strong in-group orientation, may initially create challenges for service providers and neighbors.

However, as the Amish continue to grow and integrate into various parts of rural America, these dynamics could evolve, presenting both opportunities and challenges.