Notre Dame and 3 other CFB teams that won’t reach win projections in 2026

Notre Dame, South Bend, Indiana, USA is expected to fall short of its 11.5 win projection for the 2026 season. The Irish would need to go undefeated, winning all 12 games, to reach that mark. Their upcoming home games against Miami and SMU could prove challenging if quarterback CJ Carr does not perform at his best.

Florida Gators, entering the 2026 season with a No. 7 strength of schedule in the country, are projected to win 7.5 games. Head coach Jon Sumrall hopes to turn the program around after struggles under Billy Napier, but a 7.5 win projection seems unlikely given the challenging schedule. The Gators would have to win eight games, including victories over Auburn, Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma while avoiding losses in other winnable games.

Indiana University, led by coach Curt Cignetti, is expected to win 10.5 games in 2026. However, the Hoosiers' schedule is not easy, and they would only be able to afford one loss. Indiana's games against Ohio State, Michigan, and USC present significant challenges, and the team would need to secure wins against those opponents while avoiding any additional losses to reach their projection.