James Talarico Surges Ahead of Ken Paxton in Odds to Win Texas Senate Race
Talarico’s momentum in the Texas U.S. Senate race has now moved beyond recent polling and into the prediction markets.
In recent weeks, Democrat James Talarico has been making significant progress in the Texas Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton. For the first time, Talarico has taken the lead in prediction markets, with odds favoring him at around 56 percent on Kalshi and Polymarket, compared to Paxton's 44 percent. This marks the first time Talarico has led by such a substantial margin on these platforms.
The shift occurred as the race began on Monday, with Talarico's lead becoming evident around 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday. Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University, describes this as a "stunning flip" that could be part of a larger wave of support for Democrats in the House and Senate.
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