Indian Rupee: CPI and RBI repo rate risk skew higher – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan notes India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to edge up to 4.4% year-on-year from 4.3%. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is largely under control, supporting expectations for rates to stay on hold near term.
Indian Rupee sees potential rise in Consumer Price Index (CPI), with MUFG analyst Michael Wan projecting a 4.4% year-on-year increase from 4.3%. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated at an event that inflation is "more or less under control", indicating that interest rates will remain on hold at the current juncture. Despite this, MUFG anticipates policy rates to rise, shifting their projected 50 basis points hikes to commence from the December 2026 meeting.
Factors such as robust domestic growth, accelerating credit growth, support from fiscal policy with a wider fiscal deficit, and adverse weather events contribute to the bias in favor of the RBI repo rate increasing.
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