IEA forecasts 4.3 million bpd drop in global Oil supply

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global Oil supply and demand forecasts for 2026, citing shipping disruptions in the Middle East as the primary reason for its downward adjustments. In its latest Oil Market Report, the agency predicts a 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) decline in global Oil supply to around 102 million bpd, down from earlier estimates.

This reduction in supply is expected to continue into 2027, after which demand is projected to rise by 2.4 million bpd. The IEA attributes the decline in demand to elevated fuel prices, which are putting additional downward pressure on oil consumption. However, the annual demand decline is expected to slow from 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter to 2.8 million bpd in the third quarter, before resuming growth in the final quarter.

The WTI Oil price, a key benchmark for the Oil market, is influenced by global growth, political instability, wars, sanctions, and the decisions of OPEC, as well as the value of the US Dollar.