Geldanlage: Goldpreis steigt trotz möglicher Zinserhöhungen – wie kann das sein?

Gold prices have recently reached new heights, surpassing $4,400 per ounce for the first time in months. In just two weeks, the price has increased by almost ten percent. The sharp increase in Brent oil prices, nearing the 90-dollar mark, failed to halt the gold rally. Rising energy prices have also led to higher inflation, prompting central banks like the US Federal Reserve to typically raise interest rates.

For the upcoming Fed meeting in September, only half of market participants expect an interest rate hike, with 63 percent anticipating a hike in October. High interest rates are not conducive to gold, a precious metal that does not generate ongoing returns. Consequently, market expectations of interest rate hikes pose a significant challenge for gold prices.

Gold had completely abandoned its gains since the beginning of the year, with the price dropping to $5,595 per ounce. However, gold has now embarked on a recovery rally. It is not the first time the gold price has remained resilient despite interest rate expectations. Notably, between 2024 and early 2026, bond yields and gold prices decoupled, which usually exhibit a negative correlation.

A negative correlation indicates that as bond yields rise, gold prices fall, and vice versa. However, in 2025, many investors shifted their portfolios from bonds to gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies, growing increasingly wary of the financial stability of industrial nations like the USA, whose debt burden continues to rise. Central banks may be independent, but market participants fear political pressure that could force them to lower interest rates to facilitate government debt financing.

Unlike currencies like the US dollar, gold cannot be arbitrarily increased in quantity; it is independent of state institutions. After the outbreak of the Iran War, investors initially seemed to have forgotten the role of gold, but now they appear to be remembering it. As the price rose following the US and Japan's joint intervention in the yen market to curb the yen's depreciation, it reflected a renewed skepticism about the status of the US dollar and US government bonds as a safe haven.

The measure indicated that the US government fears rising bond yields. Technical markers surpassed, analysts view this as a sign of recovery. Automated purchases could also explain why gold prices increased despite stable interest rate expectations. Many systems jump into action when gold exceeds important technical markers, such as the 100-day average.

Analysts consider this a sign of recovery. In recent weeks, rebound buyers have been increasingly used to purchase gold, allowing it to hold onto the 4000-dollar mark. Analyst Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets in Melbourne pointed out that after gold had been in a downward spiral since March, it is now beginning to break free from this pattern.

Moreover, the ability of gold prices to rise alongside higher oil prices and a stronger dollar suggests that traders are increasingly evaluating gold from a different perspective. Chinese interest in gold has also played a role in the recent price increase. Chinese gold ETFs recorded 14 consecutive trading days of inflows, the longest series since March.

The reasons for this renewed interest include the weakness of other asset classes, with massive sell-offs in Chinese stock markets, with the CSI 300 index falling almost eight percent in July. Additionally, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been buying gold consistently for the past 21 months. Remarkably, the PBOC is shifting its gold reserves from London to Hong Kong, supporting Hong Kong's aspirations to become a significant global trading center for gold.