Euro steadies against Pound Sterling as traders await UK GDP verdict

The Euro (EUR) maintained its stability against the Pound Sterling (GBP) on Wednesday, trading flat near the 0.8540 level. This stability came after two days of declines, with the Pound momentarily reaching a two-week peak earlier in the day. However, EUR/GBP retraced following the release of Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which indicated persistent inflation in July.

Throughout the week, the Pound remained relatively strong, confining the pair within its initial trading range. The Bank of England (BoE) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.75% during its meeting in early July, aligning with market expectations. Notably, three out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) advocated for a 25 basis point increase, indicating concerns over inflation risks fueled by higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.

The preliminary UK GDP figures, set to be released on Thursday, will likely be the primary driver for EUR/GBP movements. Economists anticipate a modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% for the three months leading up to June, down from 0.6% in Q1, while the annual rate is projected to slightly rise to 1.1% from 0.9% in March. A figure that aligns with these forecasts may not significantly impact Sterling.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.8540, displaying a bearish short-term outlook, as it trades below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8551 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8554. The pair is also constrained by nearby horizontal support levels at 0.8541 and 0.8545. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at around 39, indicating subdued bullish momentum and favoring further downside while these caps remain intact.

On the downside, initial support is expected at 0.8534, preceding a lower horizontal support level at 0.8532, which together form the immediate demand zone. Conversely, a recovery would require EUR/GBP to pierce above 0.8541, followed by 0.8545, before focusing on the 20-period SMA at 0.8551 and eventually the 100-period SMA at 0.8554 as stronger resistance levels.