British Pound: Strong Q2 may give way to flat growth - TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to show a reversal of May’s strength in professional services, offsetting solid retail sales and leaving the Index of Services flat, with modest industrial weakness keeping monthly GDP at 0.0% m/m.
TD Securities analysts anticipate that the United Kingdom's June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will reveal a downturn from May's robust performance in professional services, despite robust retail sales. This will result in the Index of Services remaining flat, with industrial weakness keeping monthly GDP at 0.0% month-over-month.
While there is potential for a firm 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2 GDP, the analysts caution that this apparent strength may be superficial, potentially leading to a flat GDP in the second half of 2026. They also anticipate a reversal of May's significant strength in professional services, which has been offset by solid retail sales and flat Index of Services.
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