British Pound holds near 1.3500 as CPI relief meets Hormuz risk

The British Pound remains stable near the 1.3500 mark, supported by moderately lower-than-expected US inflation figures and a heightened geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD pair settled at approximately 1.3500, having peaked at 1.3546. In July, US consumer inflation remained in line with forecasts, decreasing from 3.6% to between 3-5% annually, with core inflation also falling to 2.5% YoY from 2.6%.

This data prompted an expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates steady at the September meeting, with a 60% probability, and a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The outlook for December, however, shows a higher likelihood of a rate hike at 73%. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with US embassies in the Middle East preparing for reduced staffing, continue to impact market sentiment.

The pound also shows resilience against the US Dollar, as traders await the UK's GDP figures, which are projected to improve from 0.9% to 1.1% on an annual basis and dip from 0.6% to 0.4% on a quarterly basis. If the GDP report falls short of expectations, it could impact the Bank of England's decision to increase interest rates.

The technical analysis indicates a bullish outlook for GBP/USD, with support from key moving averages and trendlines. However, the pair faces resistance at the descending trend line break near 1.3511 and the rising trendline break level at 1.3573. On the downside, support is found at the former resistance level acting as a floor around 1.3427, followed by the multi-period SMA cluster near 1.3369 and the lower rising trendline support at 1.3340.