Brazil: Lula victory could deepen fiscal risks - Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Brendan McKenna and Dev Ashish outline scenarios for Brazil’s 2026 election, assigning a 65% probability to President Lula winning a fourth term and 30% to Flavio.
Brazil's 2026 election may bring deeper fiscal risks if President Lula secures a fourth term, according to Societe Generale analysts Brendan McKenna and Dev Ashish. They estimate a 65% chance of Lula winning and a 30% likelihood of Flavio emerging victorious. A second Lula administration is expected to maintain loose fiscal policy, increasing debt, and emphasize state intervention across various sectors.
The composition of Congress will play a significant role in shaping Brazil's debt trajectory and overall macroeconomic stability.
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