Arbeit und KI: KI drückt auf Löhne und macht Berufseinstieg schwieriger

Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) is changing the labor market in Germany, with many companies anticipating lower wages, according to a survey by the Ifo Institute. The International Labour Organization (ILO) reports that KI is making it harder for people to enter the job market. The Ifo surveyed over 3,000 German companies and asked how these changes will impact wages in the next five years. Ifo researcher Anna Ruffert summarizes the findings, stating that more companies expect negative effects than positive ones.

Workers with less than five years of experience are expected to face the most challenges. Around half of the companies anticipate a decrease in wages for these workers in the next five years, while only a small percentage expect an increase. For experienced workers, the majority of companies predict a decrease in wages, compared to fewer who expect an increase.

Additionally, there are significant differences based on qualifications. Workers without a university or college degree and less than five years of experience have a 48.3% chance of seeing wage decreases, while only 5.9% expect wage increases. Those with a university degree and less experience have an even higher chance of seeing wage decreases, at 50.8%, but there is also a 16.3% chance of wage increases.

Experienced academics have the best chances, with 37.5% of companies expecting wage decreases and 26% expecting increases.

The impact varies by industry. The service sector is the most likely to anticipate wage decreases, with 53.3% of companies in this sector predicting it for workers with short experience and no university degree. For long-term experienced workers, the percentage is still 44.2%. In the retail sector, the percentages are 47.9% and 41.3%, respectively.

In manufacturing, the percentages are 46.5% and 38.9%, respectively. The construction industry shows the weakest impact, with only 39% predicting wage decreases for workers with low experience and 31.3% for those with more experience.

Entering the workforce is also becoming more difficult due to automation and generative AI. The ILO states that jobs like administrative and sales positions, as well as those in production and certain technical fields, may see significant changes. New skills, such as digital knowledge, the ability to monitor AI outcomes, and understanding when human judgment is needed, are in high demand.

At the same time, there is growing demand for knowledge-intensive technical jobs, including those in natural sciences, engineering, healthcare, and information and communication technologies. The organization calls for more investment in education, vocational training, lifelong learning, and training opportunities.