Analysis-Saudi Arabia bets on defensive alliances to deter slide into war

Saudi Arabia is grappling with a dilemma as it faces attacks from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen's Houthis, who have recently launched a southern front against the kingdom. The Saudi government is building defensive alliances with regional countries in hopes of deterring enemies and robustly responding to attacks. However, attempts to form a maritime coalition in the Red Sea and a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan have so far failed.

The kingdom's military responses to attacks have been limited so far. The Saudi government media office did not respond to requests for comment. Middle Eastern analysts and officials believe Iran and its affiliates are aware of Saudi Arabia's desire to avoid war and are exploiting this, demonstrating their understanding that restraint is often perceived as acceptance of being targeted.

Saudi Arabia has attempted a diplomatic solution before resorting to limited military actions, which have been kept secret. The kingdom has faced attacks on critical oil infrastructure from Yemen and Iraq, as well as on its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. In response, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. launched joint airstrikes targeting Iraqi militias involved in the attacks.

Saudi Arabia also announced plans to lead a maritime defense coalition in the Red Sea and a joint defense agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. However, the roles and responsibilities of this pact remain unclear, and the agreement has been viewed as a step away from reliance on outside powers by Iran. Yemen's Houthis have ended a four-year truce, declaring a naval blockade and firing on the kingdom's oil infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia now seeks Yemeni leadership in any offensive, and has invited a coalition of 14 regional countries to join in defending the Red Sea shipping.