25 years Ohrid Agreement: Is N. Macedonia's peace holding?

Twenty-five years after the signing of the Ohrid Framework Agreement, which ended the ethnic conflict in North Macedonia in 2001, the nation continues to struggle with the aftermath of its violent past. While ethnic Macedonians and Albanians now coexist peacefully, analysts argue that genuine reconciliation has yet to be achieved.

The six-month conflict, often seen as the final chapter of the former Yugoslavia's breakup, was contained by a political compromise led by NATO, the United States, and key EU countries. However, the political order that emerged from the Ohrid Framework Agreement is now entering a new phase.

With the conservative VMRO-DPMNE party returning to power two years ago, the main ethnic Albanian party, DUI, went into opposition, marking the end of two decades of VMRO-DPMNE dominance. The current leader of the ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army, Ali Ahmeti, now criticizes the deterioration of ethnic relations over the past two years, citing attacks on the official use of the Albanian language, the abolition of equitable representation, and the weakening of mechanisms designed to prevent majoritarian rule.

North Macedonia, with a substantial ethnic Albanian minority, has long sought to balance its diversity within a stable political system. The 2001 census showed that Albanians constitute over a quarter of the country's 1.8 million inhabitants. Speaking to Deutsche Welle (DW) on the 25th anniversary of the Ohrid Agreement, DUI's senior official and former foreign minister, Bujar Osmani, emphasized the need to preserve the agreement's gains rather than focus solely on implementation.

He stressed that the question now is whether these gains can be maintained for a few more years before the stability achieved over two and a half decades is jeopardized.

The conflict resulted in 72 deaths among soldiers and police, with the number of ethnic Albanian insurgents killed remaining unclear, ranging from around 100 to several hundred. More than 170,000 people were displaced, including 74,000 within the country. The Ohrid Framework Agreement fundamentally altered North Macedonia's political system by introducing power-sharing mechanisms to give minority communities a stronger voice in decision-making.

Laws concerning sensitive issues like language, education, and national symbols now require support from both parliamentary majorities and minority representatives. While the agreement largely adheres to European minority rights standards, disputes over equality and representation persist.

Osmani acknowledged that the Ohrid Agreement achieved most of its intended goals but stressed that it is not a one-time checklist; rather, it is a system of balance that must be continuously maintained. The core of the debate revolves around the agreement's legacy. Many ethnic Macedonians argue that affirmative representation policies have led to unfair advantages for Albanians, while Albanian politicians contend that the real concern lies in the gradual erosion of rights secured under the agreement.

Critics, such as Stojance Angelov, a former police general during the 2001 conflict, point to discriminatory practices in recruitment favoring Albanians in the public sector, arguing that qualifications are being overshadowed by ethnic affiliation. Conversely, Osmani rejects these claims, asserting that recent government policies have weakened protections for Albanians introduced after the conflict.

Both domestic and international observers highlight the challenges facing North Macedonia as years of political crises and disputes over national identity have hampered reforms and deepened ethnic divisions. Harald Schenker, from the German peacebuilding organization Pro Peace, notes that while the Ohrid Agreement transformed the nation's institutions, it has not addressed community relations or fostered reconciliation.

He emphasizes the need for platforms where people from both communities can openly discuss their differences and build a shared future. Despite the progress made, ongoing obstacles, including stalled EU integration negotiations and Bulgaria's demands related to history, language, and national identity, continue to cast uncertainty over North Macedonia's future.