25 years North Macedonian peace: reconciliation in sight?

The guns fell silent in 2001, but North Macedonia continues to confront the aftermath of its ethnic conflict. Despite living in peace for two and a half decades since the Ohrid Framework Agreement ended the violence, analysts argue that genuine reconciliation remains elusive. The six-month conflict in February 2001 is often regarded as the final chapter of the former Yugoslavia's turbulent dissolution.

However, unlike the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo, it was contained before it could escalate into a larger catastrophe, primarily due to a political compromise orchestrated by NATO, the United States, and leading EU nations.

Twenty-five years later, the political landscape that emerged from the Ohrid Framework Agreement is undergoing a transformation. In 2021, the conservative Macedonian VMRO-DPMNE party regained power, ending two decades of governing dominance by the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the primary ethnic Albanian party. This shift has ushered in a new era, with Ali Ahmeti, the former leader of the ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA) during the 2001 conflict, now advocating that ethnic relations have deteriorated in recent years.

He cites attacks on the official use of the Albanian language, the dismantling of equitable representation, and the weakening of mechanisms designed to prevent majoritarian rule as alarming signs of the country's trajectory.

North Macedonia, home to a significant Albanian minority, has grappled with balancing its ethnic diversity within a stable political system for the past quarter-century. According to the latest census, Albanians constitute over a quarter of the nation's 1.8 million inhabitants. For Bujar Osmani, a senior DUI official and former foreign minister, the crucial question on the 25th anniversary of the Ohrid Agreement is not merely about the implementation of its provisions but whether its achievements can be sustained.

He contends that the question is no longer about what has been accomplished since 2001 but whether the gains that have kept North Macedonia stable for two and a half decades will be allowed to erode within a few years.

The conflict resulted in 72 casualties among soldiers and police officers, with estimates of ethnic Albanian insurgents killed ranging from around 100 to several hundred. Over 170,000 individuals were displaced, including 74,000 internally. The Ohrid Framework Agreement reshaped North Macedonia's political system by introducing power-sharing mechanisms aimed at providing minority communities with a more prominent role in decision-making processes.

While the agreement largely adhered to European standards on minority rights, it did not resolve disputes over equality and representation.

The achievement of many of the agreement's objectives is acknowledged, but its essence cannot be deemed complete, according to Osmani. The agreement is not a checklist that can be ticked off once and then set aside; rather, it is a system of balance that must be continuously maintained. At the core of the debate are divergent perspectives on the legacy of the Ohrid Agreement.

Many ethnic Macedonians contend that affirmative representation policies have created unfair advantages for Albanians, while Albanian politicians argue that the real concern lies in the gradual erosion of rights secured under the agreement.

Domestic and international observers warn that years of political instability and disagreements over national identity have hindered reforms and exacerbated ethnic divisions. Harald Schenker of the German peacebuilding organization Pro Peace asserts that while the Ohrid Agreement transformed North Macedonia's institutions, it did not necessarily foster reconciliation or a shared vision for the future.

He notes that ethnic tensions are growing, the education system remains segregated, and the two communities understand each other less and less. Schenker emphasizes the need for platforms where people can openly discuss these differences to foster understanding.

Despite North Macedonia's EU candidate status since 2005, negotiations for accession have yet to commence. The country's progress has been further impeded by Bulgaria's objections regarding history, language, and national identity. The prolonged stalemate surrounding EU integration has added to the uncertainty surrounding North Macedonia's future direction.