With Ukraine short of Patriot interceptors, Russia sees no reason to enter real negotiations, ISW says
Kyiv's dwindling air defenses now face freshly built weapons fired straight off the assembly line, not pulled from stored reserves, military intelligence warns.
Russian missile production has shifted to focus on weapons capable of evading Ukraine's dwindling Patriot interceptors, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). With Kyiv's interceptor shortage, Moscow no longer sees a reason to negotiate, as it can now pursue its maximalist goals through sustained missile barrages.
Russian factories have ramped up output of ballistic and cruise missiles designed to avoid interception, with monthly launches tripling from April to July. Production of key missile types has exceeded planned levels, and the Kremlin has met full-year targets for Zircon and Onyx systems by mid-August. To conserve resources, Russia has suspended less accurate missile lines, such as Kinzhal and Kh-32.
Additionally, S-400 launchers now fire RM-48U rounds along ballistic trajectories. Strikes against Ukraine's defense plants are aimed at crippling Kyiv's own missile program. Russia's capability to launch simultaneous salvos of up to 77 missiles, potentially reaching 200, poses a significant threat. However, Kalibr cruise missiles remain largely unused, as Ukrainian forces destroy them upon arrival.
The shortage of Patriot interceptors leaves Ukraine unable to defend against Russian ballistic missiles, creating a winter strategy to break Ukrainian resolve and sustain large-scale assaults without incurring significant battlefield losses. This approach aligns with Russia's theory of victory, which relies on outlasting Ukraine's defenses and Western resolve.
Written by urgent.news from Euromaidan Press's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
