Why UDA-ODM 2027 deal might backfire on Ruto

President William Ruto's recent formalisation of the UDA-ODM alliance ahead of the 2027 elections could bolster his political base, but it also introduces new challenges that could fracture the coalition from within. The agreement unites the UDA and ODM parties, two factions that had been at odds during the 2022 election. While this collaboration may bolster Ruto's numbers, particularly in areas where ODM has traditionally held sway, the real test lies in whether politicians and supporters from both parties can set aside personal ambitions, historical rivalries, and competing interests for a unified campaign.

Ruto faces the risk of his coalition becoming a paper tiger rather than a cohesive political force. Discontent may arise among UDA figures who previously wielded significant influence and are now feeling their political space is being encroached upon by ODM politicians. Resentment could brew beneath the surface, especially during the 2027 campaign, requiring disciplined grassroots mobilisation.

Similarly, within the ODM party, some politicians might view the UDA-ODM pact as their chance to assume a central role, potentially sparking internal competition for influence, positions and constituencies. The two parties possess distinct political cultures and histories, making the transition from rivalry to cooperation a tricky process.

Another potential threat stems from the possibility of sabotage. Rivalries and unfulfilled ambitions persist within both the UDA and ODM parties, and the new arrangement might provide these individuals with access to political spaces previously monopolised by their rivals. This could sow seeds of discord and undermine the coalition's unity.

Internal mistrust presents the most formidable challenge for William Ruto. By becoming formally associated with the UDA and the administration, the ODM party may find it harder to argue that government failures are exclusively attributable to UDA. This could leave ODM leaders vulnerable to accusations of complicity in the administration's shortcomings, especially if public dissatisfaction with government policies arises.

The 2022 lesson underscores the perils of alliances when parties with varying bases attempt to operate as one, as confusion often emerges over ownership, responsibility, and messaging. If opposition parties remain united, a weak opposition candidate could pose a more significant threat to Ruto than multiple popular candidates divided among themselves.