Why did US defence official Colby avoid mention of Scarborough Shoal in Manila speech?

During a speech in Manila on Monday, US Undersecretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby refrained from mentioning Beijing or discussing the rising tensions in the South China Sea. Colby, who was in the capital of Washington's closest treaty ally in Asia, chose to present a measured tone ahead of the anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Despite being in a region experiencing recent confrontations between Chinese and Philippine forces near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, Colby did not directly refer to the ongoing conflicts or Beijing's actions. Instead, he aimed to reassure regional allies that the United States was not disengaging from Asia and pledged to bolster a favorable balance of power in the area.

Colby's decision to avoid mentioning China specifically was seen by some analysts as a strategic move to prevent provoking Beijing before the anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund, suggested that Colby likely decided to steer clear of discussing China to avoid upsetting the delicate stability reached by the two leaders in Busan and Beijing.

Another factor could have been Colby's personal interest in visiting Beijing, according to Glaser. However, other analysts cautioned against interpreting Colby's language as a sign of any significant shift in Washington's stance toward China. Ken Moriyasu, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, maintained that while Colby didn't explicitly name China, his speech was still focused on China's role in the strategic challenges.

He emphasized Colby's focus on the first island chain, deterrence by denial, stronger alliances, and maintaining a favorable balance of power in Asia, which highlighted the underlying strategic concerns without directly criticizing Beijing.