USDA slashes Ukraine grain export forecasts amid attacks

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its projections for Ukrainian grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year due to Russian attacks. The forecast for wheat exports has been cut to 10.8 million tons from 14.5 million tons, corn to 14 million tons from 23 million tons, barley to 2.5 million tons from 2.4 million tons, and rye to 1,000 tons from 15,000 tons.

These reductions stem from intensified Russian assaults on civilian ships in Ukrainian waters and at ports, causing a shortage of available vessels. Meanwhile, the USDA has increased its production forecasts for Ukraine's wheat, corn, barley, and rye. It also highlighted the potential for increased domestic corn use for bioethanol production in Ukraine, with current production capacity capable of handling up to 650,000 tons annually.

Ukrainian grain and oilseed storage capacity is estimated to exceed 74 million tons, providing farmers with substantial reserves during the marketing year. Ship calls at Ukrainian Black Sea ports have been halted since July 22 due to ongoing Russian attacks on ports and vessels, and Russia is reportedly targeting Ukraine's overland export routes as well.